According to “one of the greatest” Bitcoin metrics, the BTC price bull run has begun.

BTC, or bitcoin current value $26,779, is starting a fresh “speculation cycle” that is indicative of a bull run, according to new research.

Philip Swift, co-founder of trading platform Decentrader and developer of data source LookIntoBitcoin, indicated history was repeating itself in a tweet on May 16 using the RHODL Ratio indicator.

“Zoom out” : RHODL Ratiocreator on Bitcoin 

The realized price of the supply, or the price at which coins last traded, is the basis for the RHODL Ratio, a technique for monitoring the behavior of the BTC price. It was developed by Swift in 2020 and analyzes the relative ages of coins that traveled recently to those that moved between two and three years ago.

This ratio provides information on the relative activity of short-term (STHs) and long-term (LTHs) holders, and therefore, the level of market speculation. RHODL is now rising after reaching its green accumulation zone at the end of 2022.

Swift stated that Bitcoin was “at the point of maximum opportunity” at that time in an interview with Cointelegraph. This prediction has subsequently come true, as seen by the 70% increase in BTC/USD in Q1 2023.

Before then, Bitcoin’s own fall to macro lows and its ascent to that point had occurred simultaneously.

He thinks that a fresh bull cycle is already in motion as speculation seems to be picking up right now.

“One thing that impressed me when I developed the bitcoin RHODL Ratio indicator in 2020 was how it signalled the beginning of a fresh bull run when the ratio value of younger coins started to rise. Which is where we are now at,” he said.

Chart showing the RHODL ratio for bitcoin. Source: Twitter and Philip Swift

Swift’s opinion is shared by others. Checkmate, the chief on-chain analyst at Glassnode, responded by describing RHODL Ratio as “one of the greatest onchain finds.”

While a blow-off peak for BTC/USD was delivered in the 2021 bull market, RHODL did not see a copycat rise, according to an accompanying chart. When Bitcoin reached its previous all-time high in late 2017, the measure last entered the red “high speculation” zone.

RHODL ratio graph for bitcoin (screenshot). Referring to LookIntoBitcoin

Fear, despair, and lack of interest

Swift went on to claim that players in the market for cryptocurrencies continue to be risk-averse on short timescales.

Following a review of financing rates on exchanges, a number of “bearish” evaluations for Bitcoin produced by Decentrader led to the conclusion. These included the funding rates itself as well as open interest and the long/short ratio.

(Screenshot) Market statistics for several popular cryptocurrencies. Citation: Decentrader

He concluded the day by saying, “Market is still fearful/depressed/uninterested.”

Swift provided Cointelegraph with an updated prediction earlier this month on what would happen to Bitcoin in the year leading up to its upcoming block subsidy halving. Among other possibilities, a return of $20,000 is not implausible.

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